Cash Flow Forecasting for Startups & SMEs

Q: What is scenario modelling?

Scenario modelling creates base case, upside, and downside versions of your forecast to stress-test decisions like hiring, investment, or pricing changes.

Q: How do I calculate my startup runway?

Runway equals current cash divided by monthly net burn rate (expenses minus revenue). It should be recalculated as revenue and costs change.

Q: Do I need cash flow forecasting if I'm profitable?

Yes. Profitable businesses frequently face cash flow issues from timing — late invoice payments, VAT quarters, tax payments, or seasonal dips.

Cash flow forecasting

Cash Flow Forecasting for UK Businesses

Profit doesn’t pay bills — cash does. Cash flow forecasting gives you a clear, forward-looking view of your bank balance so you can plan hires, manage seasonality, negotiate with confidence, and never be surprised by a shortfall.

AccTek builds rolling forecasts directly from your live Xero data, combining accounts receivable, accounts payable, recurring costs, and revenue assumptions into a model you can trust. We update it regularly and stress-test it with scenario modelling.

What we deliver

Cash Flow Forecasting Services

13-Week Cash Forecast

Short-term, week-by-week visibility of cash in and cash out. Ideal for managing payroll, VAT quarters, and supplier payments.

12-Month Rolling Forecast

Strategic cash flow view covering the next year. Updated monthly with actuals to keep projections grounded and actionable.

Scenario Modelling

Best case, worst case, and base case projections. Model the impact of new hires, lost clients, delayed payments, or price changes before they happen.

Runway Analysis

How many months until you need to raise, cut costs, or break even? We model your burn rate against current reserves and revenue trajectory.

Early Warning Alerts

Proactive flags when forecast cash drops below defined thresholds. You get time to act, not a surprise overdraft.

Investor-Ready Reporting

Cash flow forecasts packaged for board packs, investor updates, and fundraising decks — credible numbers backed by live data.

Who needs this

Cash Flow Forecasting for Every Stage

Startups & Pre-Revenue

You’re burning cash. Every month matters.

Runway calculation & burn rate monitoring
Fundraising timing decisions
Hiring trigger thresholds

Growing SMEs

Revenue is up, but cash is tight. Sound familiar?

Working capital management
VAT & tax payment planning
Seasonal cash flow smoothing

Related services

Cash Flow Forecasting Works Best in Context

FAQs

Cash Flow Forecasting — Frequently Asked Questions

What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?

A 13-week cash flow forecast is a rolling, week-by-week projection of your cash inflows and outflows over the next quarter. It’s the most actionable short-term forecasting tool because it tracks real receipts and payments rather than accrual-based accounting entries. AccTek builds these from your live Xero data.

How often should cash flow forecasts be updated?

13-week forecasts should be updated weekly. 12-month rolling forecasts should be updated monthly with actuals. AccTek handles both as part of our advisory and fractional CFO packages — you receive the updated forecast with commentary, not just numbers.

What is scenario modelling?

Scenario modelling creates multiple versions of your cash flow forecast based on different assumptions. A typical model includes a base case (expected), upside (best case), and downside (worst case). This lets you stress-test decisions like hiring, investment, or pricing changes before committing real money.

How do I calculate my startup runway?

Runway = current cash balance divided by monthly net burn rate (monthly expenses minus monthly revenue). AccTek calculates this from your Xero data and updates it as your revenue and costs change. We also flag when your runway drops below critical thresholds.

Do I need cash flow forecasting if I’m profitable?

Yes. Profitable businesses frequently run into cash flow problems because of timing — invoices paid late, VAT quarters, corporation tax payments, or seasonal revenue dips. Forecasting ensures your bank balance stays healthy even when your P&L looks good.

Cash Flow Forecasting
Know Your Runway. Plan with Confidence.

Cash Flow Forecasting for UK Businesses